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TABLE OF CONTENT:
CHAPTER ONE
INTRODUCTION
1.1
Background of the Study
1.2
Statement of the Research Problem
1.3
Objectives of the Study
1.4
Significance of the Study
1.5
Research Questions
1.6
Research Hypothesis
1.7
Conceptual and Operational Definition
1.8
Assumptions
1.9
Limitations of the Study
CHAPTER TWO
LITERATURE REVIEW
2.1
Sources of Literature
2.2
The Review
2.3
Summary of Literature Review
CHAPTER THREE
RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
3.1
Research Method
3.2
Research Design
3.3
Research Sample
3.4
Measuring Instrument
3.5
Data Collection
3.6
Data Analysis
3.7
Expected Result
CHAPTER FOUR
DATA ANALYSIS AND RESULTS
4.1
Data Analysis
4.2
Results
4.3
Discussion
CHAPTER FIVE
SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS
5.1
Summary
5.2
Recommendations for Further Study
Bibliography
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INTRODUCTION
BACKGROUND
OF STUDY
The current period
in the world economy is regarded as period of globalization and trade
liberalization. In this period, one the crucial issues in development and
international economics is to know whether trade openness indeed promotes
growth. With globalization, two major trends are noticeable: first is the
emergence of multinational firms with strong presence in different,
strategically located markets; and secondly, convergence of consumer tastes
for the most competitive products, irrespective of where they are made. In
this context of the world as a “global village”, regional integration
constitutes an effective means of not only improving the level of
participation of countries in the sub-region in world trade, but also their
integration into the borderless and interlinked global economy. (NEEDS,
2005).
Since 1950, the world economy has
experienced a massive liberalization of world trade, initially under the
auspices of the General Agreement on Tariffs and trade (GATT), established in
1947, and currently under the auspices of the World Trade Organization (WTO)
which replaced the GATT in 1993. Tariff levels in both developed and
developing countries have reduced drastically, averaging approximately 4% and
20% respectively, even though the latter is relatively high. Also, non-tariff
barriers to trade, such as quotas, licences and technical specifications, are
also being gradually dismantled, but at a slower rate when compared with
tariffs.
The liberalization of trade has led to
a massive expansion in the growth of world trade relative to world output.
While world output (or GDP) has expanded fivefold, the volume of world trade
has grown 16 times at average compound rate of just over 7% per annum. In
fact, it is difficult, if not impossible, to understand the growth and
development process of countries without reference to their trading
performance. (Thirlwall, 2000).
Likewise, Fontagné and Mimouni (2000)
noted that since the end of the European recovery after World War II, tariff
rates have been divided by 10 at the world level, international trade has
been multiplied by 17, world income has quadrupled, and income per capita has
doubled. Incidentally, it is well known that periods of openness have
generally been associated with prosperity, whereas protectionism has been the
companion of recessions. In addition, the trade performance of individual
countries tends to be good indicator of economic performance since well
performing countries tend to record higher rates of GDP growth. In total,
there is a common perception that even if imperfect competition and second
best situations offer the possibility of welfare improving trade policies, on
average free trade is better than no trade.
From the ongoing discussion, it is
evident that trade is very important in promoting and sustaining the growth
and development of an economy. No economy can isolate itself from trading
with the rest of the world because trade act as a catalyst of growth. Thus
Nigeria, being part of the world, is no exemption. For this reason, there is
a need to thoroughly examine the nature of relationship between trade
openness and output growth in Nigeria.
TRADE OPENNESS AND
OUTPUT GROWTH: HISTORICAL EXPERIENCE OF THE NIGERIA ECONOMY
Today,
Nigeria is regarded to have the largest economy in sub-Saharan Africa,
excluding South Africa. In the last four decades there has been little or no
progress realized in alleviating poverty despite the massive effort made and
the many programmes established for that purpose. Indeed, as in many other
sub-Saharan Africa countries, both the number of poor and the proportion of
poor have been increasing in Nigeria. In particular, the 1998 United Nations
human development report declares that 48% of Nigeria’s population lives
below the poverty line. According to the report (UNDP, 1998). The bitter
reality of the Nigerian situation is not just that the poverty level is
getting worse by the day but more than four in ten Nigerians live in
conditions of extreme poverty of less than N320 per capita per month, which
barely provides for a quarter of the nutritional requirements of healthy
living. This is approximately US 8.2 per month or US 27 cents per day.
Doug
Addison (unpublished) further explained that the Nigeria economy is not
merely volatile; it is one of the most volatile economies in the world (see
figure 1 below). There is evidence that this volatility is adversely
affecting the real growth rate of Nigeria’s gross domestic product (GDP) by
inhibiting investment and reducing the productivity of investment, both public
and private. Economic theory and empirical evidence suggest that sustained
high future growth and poverty reduction are unlikely without a significant
reduction in volatility. Oil price fluctuations drive only part of Nigeria’s
volatility policy choices have also contributed to the problem. Yet policy
choices are available that can help accelerate growth and thus help reduce
the percentage of people living in poverty, despite the severity of Nigeria’s
problems.
Figure
1: growth rate of real GDP
Nigeria real GDP
Growth Rate .
DIAGRAM
During the period
1960-1997, Nigeria’s growth rate of per capital GDP of 1.45% compares
unfavorably with that reported by other countries, especially those posted by
china and the Asian Tigers such as Hong Kong, Singapore, Taiwan, and south
Korea, viewed in this comparative perspective, Nigeria’s per capita income
growth has been woefully low and needs to be improved upon. (Iyoha and
Oriakhi, 2002). In like manner, ogujiuba, Oji and Adenuga (2004) wrote that
the Nigerian economy has severally been described as a difficult environment
for business with a population growth of about 3%, it has been acknowledged
that the current average output growth rate of less than 4% will see the
country being poorer in the next decade.
A
study conducted by Iyoha and Oriakhi (2002) on Nigeria’s per capita GNP from
1964 to 1997 show that it rose steadily from US$120 to US$780 in 1981.
Thereafter, it fell almost steadily to US$280 in 1997. Thus, between 1964 and
1981, income per capita increased by 550% or at an annual average rate of
32.3% while between 1981 and 1997, it fell by 64.1% or at an annual average
rate of 4%. It is worth noting that if income per capita had continued to
increase beyond 1981 as it did before then, Nigeria’s GDP per capita would
have equaled US$1,279 in 1997. The difference between US $280 and US$1,279,
i.e, approximately, US$1,000.00, is a rough measure of the cost to the
average Nigerian of domestic macro economic policy mistakes and adverse
international economic shocks. Likewise in 1960 agricultural exports
accounted for only 2.6%. Exports of other commodities like tin and processed
goods amounted to 26.6% of total exports. By 1970 agricultural exports only
accounted for 33% of total exports while petroleum exports had started to
establish dominance by exceeding 58% of total exports. By the time the oil
boom began in earnest in 1974, petroleum exports accounted for approximately
93% of all exports. The relative share of agricultural exports in total
exports had shrunk to 5.4% while other products accounted for the remaining
1.9%. Since 1974, with the exception of 1978 when the relative share of
petroleum in total exports has exceeded 90%. In deed, since 1990, the
relative share of petroleum in total exports has exceeded 96%. Agricultures
contribution has fluctuated between 0.5% and 2.3% while the share of other
products has fluctuated between 0.5% and 1.7%. Thus petroleum exportation has
totally dominated the economy and indeed government finances since the mid-1970s.
Meanwhile, a puzzling and disturbing
aspect of Nigeria export boom is that the growth it generated did not seem to
be lasting or to have had a significant effect in changing the structure of
the economy. For instance, in the 1970’s there was a major increase in
measured GDP but the structure of the economy remained basically unchanged
(see figure 2 below). This led professor Yesufu (1995) to describe the
Nigerian economy as one that had experienced “growth without development’’.
DIAGRAM
During the period
of 1970 – 1985, import substitution industrialization (ISI) strategy was a
dominant feature of trade policy in Nigeria. The trade policy was generally
inward oriented. Under this ISI strategy, “Infant” manufacturing industries
were protected using high tariffs, import quotas, and other trade
restrictions like import licensing. Non-tariff barriers to trade such as
import prohibitions were also utilized. During this period, trade policy was
also adjusted in response to the exigencies of the balance of payments.
Also, Nigeria was operating a fixed
exchange rate regime under which the value of the Naira was essentially tied
to US dollar and gold. It is worth noting that the trade policy pursued
during this period resulted in a rapid increase in manufacturing production
and employment, particularly during the era of the oil boom (1975 -1980) and
that led to a rise in the share of manufacturing in Gross Domestic product
(GDP) from 5.6% in 1962/63 to 8.7% in 1986. (Iyoha and Oriakhi, 2002).
In 1986, Nigeria adopted the
structural adjustment programme (SAP) of the IMF/World Bank. With the
adoption of SAP in 1986, there was a radical shift from inward-oriented trade
policies to out ward –oriented trade policies in Nigeria.
These are policy measures that emphasize
production and trade along the lines dictated by a country’s comparative
advantage such as export promotion and
export diversification, reduction or elimination of import tariffs, and the
adoption of market-determined exchange rates some of the aims of the
structural adjustment programme adopted in 1986 were diversification of the
structure of exports, diversification of the structure of production,
reduction in the over-dependence on imports, and reduction in the
over-dependence on petroleum exports. The major policy measures of the SAP
were:
·
Deregulation of the exchange rate
·
Trade liberalization
·
Deregulation of the financial sector
·
Adoption of appropriate pricing
policies especially for petroleum products.
·
Rationalization and privatization of
public sector enterprises and
·
Abolition of commodity marketing
boards.
However,
as a result of trade liberalization gospel of the SAP, the Nigeria external
sector really experience dramatic growth. For instance, the total domestic
exports of Nigeria in 2006 amounted to N755141.32 million against N6621303.64
million in 2005 showing an increase of 14.10%. Domestic exports recorded
negative growth rates in 1993 (7.70%), 1994 (45.5%), 1997 (2.03%), 1998
(38.48%) and 2001 (27.06%); while it recorded positive growth rates in other
periods. The largest increase in domestic exports was witnessed in 1995
(448.42%). Total imports (C.I.F) stood at N2922248.46 in 2006 as against
N1779601.57 million in 2005 recording an increase of 64.20%. Total imports
also recorded negative growth rates in 1994(45.72%),1998(9.41%) and
2004(18.07%) while it is positive all through other years. The value of total
merchandise trade amounted to N10477389.78 million in 2006 as against
N45272.24 recorded in 1987. External trade was dominated by domestic exports
between 1987 and 2006 averaging
67.17% while imports (C.I.F) averaged 32.82% (see figure 3 below),
consequently, the trade balance was positive between 1987 and 2006. Oil
export remains the dominant of export trade in Nigeria between 1987 and 2006
accounting for about 93.33% of total domestic exports. On the other hand, non
oil exports accounted for a small value of 6.67% over the same period. (NBS
report, 2008).
DIAGRAM
Therefore,
it could be understood that the SAP involved the deregulation and
liberalization of the Nigerian economy. This policy thrust of this program
dovetailed nicely with the emerging international orthodoxy to the effect
that deregulation and economic liberalization would yield the optimal
allocation of scarce resources, reduce waste, and promote rapid economic
growth in developing countries. Unfortunately, there has been no significant
progress made in the achievement of these objectives. The openness of the
economy has significantly increased in the past four decades, with the
trade-GDP ratio rising from 31.54% in 1970, to 46.91% 1980, 57.23% in 1990,
88.16% in 1995, 85.26% in 2003 and 57.63% in 2007 (see figure 4 below)
indeed, in the 1990s the ratio of trade to GDP has averaged 70%. This extreme
openness of the economy could be disadvantageous in that it makes the country
highly susceptible to internationally transmitted business cycles, and, in particular
international transmitted shocks (like commodity price collapse). A good example of this effect on the Nigerian
economy is that of the global food crisis of 2007 and the current global
economic/financial crisis.
FIGURES 4: THE DEGREE OF OPENNESS
NIGERIA IMPORT AND EXPORT
(DIAGRAM)
ATEMENT
OF THE RESEARCH PROBLEM
Nwafor
Manson (unpublished) not that the Nigeria’s trade policy over the years has
been determined by one/ more of the following.
·
Need to protect and stimulate
domestic production (import capital goods at low prices etc)
·
Need to ameliorate/prevent balance of
payment problems.
·
Need to boost the value of the naira
·
Need to be competitive and enjoy the
benefits of openness.
·
Need to increase revenue and
·
International agreements
Today,
as part of moving with the trend of globalization and trade liberalization in
the global economic system, Nigeria is a member of and sygnatory to many
international and regional trade agreements such as international monetary
fund (IMF), world trade organization (WTO), economic community of West
African States (ECOWAS), and so many others. The policy response of such
economic partnership on trade has been to remove trade barriers, reduce
tariffs, and embark on outward-oriented trade policies. Despite all her
effort to meet up with the demands to these economic partnerships in terms of
opening up her border, according to the 2007 assessment of the trade policy
review, Nigeria’s trade freedom was
rate 56% making her the worlds 131st freest economy while in 2009,
it was ranked 117th freest economy, the country’s GDP was also
ranked 161st in the world in February, 2009. The economy has
struggled vigorously to stimulate growth through openness to trade, In fact,
it seems that as the country put greater effort to boost her economic growth
by opening up to trade with the global economy the more she becomes worse-off
relative to her trading partners in terms of country output growth.
Having
reviewed the related literatures and considering the structure of the
Nigerian economy as related to trade openness and output growth, we may then
ask the following questions.
·
Does trade openness have any
significant impact on out put growth in Nigeria?
·
Is there any other macroeconomic
variable that has significant impact on output growth in Nigeria?
·
Is there any linear association (correlation)
between trade openness and output growth in Nigeria?
·
Is there long run relationship
between trade Openness and output growth in Nigeria?
·
Has there been any significant
structural change in output growth between the pre-SAP and post-SAP period in
Nigeria?
OBJECTIVES
OF THE STUDY
The
broad objective of this research work is to study, in its entirely, the
relationship between trade openness and output growth in Nigeria. This broad
objective can be subdivided into the following smaller objectives:
·
To examine the impact of trade
openness on output growth in Nigeria.
·
To identify other internal and
external macroeconomic shocks that determine output growth in Nigeria.
·
To identify other international and
external macro economic shocks that determine output growth in Nigeria.
·
To determine the linear association
(correlation) between trade openness and output growth in Nigeria.
·
To ascertain the possibility of long
run relationship between trade openness and output growth in Nigeria.
·
To determine the possibility of
structural changes (if any) in output growth between the pre-SAP and post-SAP
period.
STATEMENT
OF THE RESEARCH HYPOTHESES
In view of the foregoing study, with
respect to trade openness and output growth in Nigeria, the following null
hypothesis will be tested:
Ho: Trade openness does not have any significant
impact on output growth in Nigeria.
Ho: There
is no other macroeconomic variable (internal and external) that have
significant impact on output growth in Nigeria.
Ho: There is no linear association (correlation)
between trade openness and output growth in Nigeria.
Ho: There
is no long run relationship between trade openness and output growth in
Nigeria.
Ho: There
is no significant structural change in output growth between the pre-SAP and
post-SAP period.
JUSTIFICATION OF
THE STUDY
Nigeria is currently undergoing a
series of transformation in every sector of the economy, including the
external sector of the economy. The country’s economic policy in the last two
decades had one dominating theme which is an integral part of the structural
Adjustment programme (SAP) – trade liberalization. This policy was espoused
on the argument that it enhances the welfare of consumers and reduces poverty
as it offers wider platform for choice from among wider variety of quality
goods and cheaper imports. Today, there are many existing literature on the
topical issue of trade openness and growth of which some support the axiom
that openness is directly correlated to greater economic growth with the main
operational implication being that governments should dismantle the barriers
to trade. The focal point of this research work is to identify the short
comings and benefits of this argument as well as check the validity of this
mainstream axiom I Nigeria in the presence of various internal and external
shocks.
SIGNIFICANCE
OF THE STUDY
The role of international trade in the
developmental journey of an economy can not be over emphasized, especially
with the current trend of globalization. Nigeria. Being part of the global
village, is not left out of this world development. This research work is
carried out to study how trade openness has influenced the performance of the
Nigeria economy through output growth in the presence of other internal and
external shocks. The findings of this research work transcend beyond mere
academic brainstorming, but will be of immense benefit to federal agencies,
policy makers, intellectual researcher and international trade think tanks
that occasionally prescribe and suggest policy options to the government on
trade related issues. It will also help the government to see the
effectiveness of trade liberalization policy on the economic growth of the
nation over the years. This research work will further serve as a guide and
provide insight for future research on this topic and related field for
students who are willing to improve it. It will also educate the public on
various government policies as related to trade issues.
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